Derby Preview

Age Of Aquarius

One of a host of Ballydoyle entries and, it is safe to say, probably not their leading light in the contest.

Began his career on the AW at Dundalk but showed sufficient potential to be entered for the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud last season where he came home fourth, a length and a half behind Fame And Glory.

Winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial in May, making the running and running-on having been headed a furlong out.

The Lingfield trial has not been strong in recent years and this year is no exception.

He is entitled to come on for that first run and there is no reason why he could not edge a place.

Black Bear Island

Winner of the Dante Stakes at York and the victory distance of a head does not tell the full story as he was left with a great deal to do in the closing stages and with a better ride could have won the contest much more convincingly.

Being a full brother to the 2002 winner High Chaparral he certainly has the genes to suggest he is capable of taking the Blue Riband.

He is still an improving horse and the extra two furlongs in The Derby should not inconvenience him, especially taking into account the manner in which he was running on in the Dante.

Must have a very real chance.

It looks as though Black Bear Island will be ridden by champion UK jockey Ryan Moore.

Crowded House

An impressive victory in last seasons Racing Post Trophy propelled the Brian Meehan trained colt to the head of the ante-post market over the winter.

However the omens have not been good this season.

He was taken out of the 2000 Guineas and sent directly to York’s Dante where he was, frankly, very disappointing.

He came home a lackluster eighth, showing none of the devastating turn of foot demonstrated as a two-year-old.

The trainer attempted to put a gloss on the performance by suggesting the colt needed the run more than they thought.

However it is hard to get away from the belief that the colt has not trained on.

Debussy

Winner of the Classic Trial here at Epsom he beat Oaks Midday in good style and if she runs well in the Oaks then his price will surely drop for the big one.

However next time out he seemed to have been put in his place in the Chester Vase, coming home third behind two of his rivals today in Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse.

It is said the tight course at Chester was not to his liking and the ground was also too firm.

Well he has proved the course here at Epsom is no problem (he is the only course winner in the field), however it looks as though the ground may go against him.

If the Met Office have completely screwed up and there is plenty of rain before Saturday then he may have an outsiders chance of a place.If, however, it stays dry I would not be surprised if he was taken out.

Fame And Glory

Carries the mantle of being the only unbeaten runner in this year’s renewal.Likely to start favourite he ticks all the right boxes and has the ideal profile of a Derby winner.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien-trained (and with Vincent O’Brien passing away this week what an emotional winner he would be).

He is by Montjeu sire of two winners of this race already, he is a Group 1 winner, and has been an easy winner of the top two Irish trials this season.

If you are looking for negatives then the only glaring one is that stable jockey Johnny Murtagh looks as though he has opted for stablemate Rip Van Winkle, however it would not be the first time a top rider has made the wrong pick.

Also the jockey that is set to take the ride, Seamus Heffernan has ridden the horse before.

Gan Amhras

Trained by last years controversial winning trainer, Jim Bolger, Gan Amhras is also following a similar approach to New Approach.

Third in the 2000 Guineas and coming on to tackle the Derby, the son of Galileo has trained on, showing considerable improvement and looking to be crying out for this longer trip. In the Guineas he was certainly putting in his best work in the closing stages, having apparently been outpaced in the early stages.

He certainly has the scope to come on again and rates a decent each way prospect.

Golden Sword

A shock winner of the Chester Vase where he seemed to be put in the race as a pacemaker and well fancied stablemate Masterofthehorse ran a tactically terrible race.

It is fair to say the result of the Vase was a “one off” and it looks as though Golden Sword is here as a pacemaker again and on this occasion he will not be winning.

Kite Wood

Godolphin’s attempt to win the race in 2009 and it looks destined to be another vain attempt.

Although the winner of Ascot’s Autumn Stakes last season, when trained by Michael Jarvis, he was a very disappointing fifth in the Dante.

Another who looks as though he has not trained on.

Masterofthehorse

Another Ballydoyle contended who is not one of the shining lights.

Controversially beaten by stablemate Golden Sword in the Chester Vase after a terrible ride from his jockey.

However even presuming he had won the Vase it was not a strong renewal and his form to date is not enough to take a Derby.

Montaff

Runner-up to Age Of Aquarius in the Lingfield Derby Trial, the form of that run was certainly an improvement on his two-year-old form.

He will have to improve again to have any chance of being placed in this contest, not an impossibility, but unlikely.

Rip Van WinkleShowed that Johnny Murtagh is perfectly capable of choosing the right horse when he prefered Rip Van Winkle to Mastercraftsman in the 2000 Guineas.

Taking into account his preparation had been interrupted by a bruised foot his fourth was a credible performance and he was certainly doing his best work in the closing stages.

It looks as though Johnny Murtagh is staying loyal to him in the Derby, however there are two big question marks hanging over him.

Will he act on the course and, more importantly, will he get the mile and a half?

Sea The Stars

Looking to be the first horse since Nashwan in 1989 to take the Guineas / Derby double.

The half-brother to 2001 Derby winner Galileo beat a high class field in the 2000 Guineas, looking as though a step up in trip is well within his compass, although whether 1¼ or 1½ miles is his optimum trip is the $64,000 question.

South Easter

Very unexposed, only making his debut in April this year, coming second in a maiden at Newbury before going on to take the Dee Stakes at Chester.

This year’s Dee Stakes was not a high quality renewal with a blanket covering the first four home.Probably the biggest unknown in the field.

On what has been seen in public he has little chance, however being the most unexposed he has the greatest potential to improve and spring a major shock.

Verdict

A few weeks ago William Hill were offering 5/4 that there would be an Irish 1-2-3. That looked to be a standout price and it still does.

I can see an O'Brien 1-2, with another Irish raider taking third.

1 Fame And Glory
2 Black Bear Island
3 Gan Amhras