Tuesday, 2 June 2009

Oaks Preview

High Heeled

Has reasonable form and hails from a stable who know what they are doing.

Was fourth to Sariska in the Musidora and York, her performance being blamed on the firm ground.

However with the going currently Good, Good to Firm in places and with no rain forecast she could be in trouble again at Epsom and is best ignored.

Midday

Runner-up to Debussy in the Blue Riband Trial here in April and she is trained by Henry Cecil, who has won this race eight times.

Her last win was in the Lingfield Oaks Trial which has produced the Oaks winner three times in recent years.

Her three-year-old form is certainly better than last years and she is a contender you would ignore at your peril.

Nashmiah

The most exposed contender who has twice finished behind Rainbow View.

Has had a couple of decent wins this seasons but her limitations are fully exposed.

In addition her stable seem to favour Wadaat and it would be no surprise if Nashmiah skipped Epsom in favour of the Royal meeting.

Oh Goodness Me

Third in the Irish 2000 Guineas on her latest start, running on really well in the heavy going.

There should be no question marks concerning her stamina, however the Irish 1000 Guineas was a weak renewal and the going at Epsom will be completely different.

Others preferred.

Perfect Truth

The only O’Brien contender in the fillies’ classic.

Finally made it to the winners enclosure when beating Phillipina in the Cheshire Oaks, setting a course record in the process.

However the way Phillipina was running on at the end suggests she has the ability to reverse the form and that O’Brien will not be claiming Oaks glory.

Phillipina

Still a maiden but her performance at the end of the Cheshire Oaks was eye catching and good enough to suggest she will reverse the form with a conqueror that day, Perfect Truth.

However she is still a maiden and that does not augur well, especially when considering she is up against some class fillies in this contest.

She is improving but whether she has sufficient improvement to take this one is very much open to question.

Rainbow View

Unbeaten as a two-year-old she went into the 1000 Guineas with high hopes of maintaining her unbeaten record.

In the end she only came home fifth, seemingly lacking pace at a crucial point in the race.

However she was staying on well in enough in the closing stages to suggest she needs further.

Her trainer said the fast ground at Newmarket was against her, even though she has winning form on good to firm as a juvenile.

If she runs to her form of last year she will be a serious contender but you have to take it on trust she is as good.

Sariska

Unexposed, she has done little wrong in her runs to date.Her last outing, taking the Musidora at York, was most impressive, showing a great turn of foot in the closing stages – suggesting a mile and a half is well within her range.

She still has plenty of scope for improvement and her York win underlined her ability to act on both firm and soft surfaces.

The Miniver Rose

The sort of filly who has made quiet progress without setting the world alight.

Was disappointing when fourth in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket before going on to come second in Newbury’s Oaks trial.

Unlikely to win this race she is, however, the sort who could grab a place at a tidy price.

Three Moons

Frankie Dettori’s mount and although she has done little wrong she is another who is outclassed at this level.

A decent short-head second to Midday at Newmarket in September, she went on to score an easy odds-on victory at Folkestone on her seasonal bow.

Second in the Pretty Polly Stakes she led two out and battled on gamely once headed.

The negatives are she looks to be outclassed and there is a suggestion 1¼ miles is her limit.

Tottie

Six and three-quarter lengths third to Midday in the Lingfield Oaks trial, there is nothing at all to suggest she can reverse that form.

One aspect in her favour is she has won at Brighton, which shows she can handle an undulating track like Epsom.

Wadaat

Something of an enigma, the filly is highly thought of by her trainer.Runner-up in the Italian Oaks last time out the run previously she ran an absolute stinker in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.

A run so bad even the trainer cannot offer an explanation.

Too much of a risk to back.

Verdict

It is hard to look beyond Midday and Sariska – but in which order. Difficult to say so I am going to let my heart rule my head and opt for a ninth Cecil win.

1 – Midday
2 – Sariska
3 – The Minerva Rose

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